Commodity Market Report

Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2023

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The dominant factors influencing the zinc price and market in the medium-term are set to be mainly exogenous. Coronavirus restrictions have eased but it remains an issue. Disruptions to supply chains and the inflationary pressures that were also previously easing, have been reignited by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the near- to medium term, our base case outlook for the zinc market is one of refined zinc stocks at close to historically low levels, only becoming excessive in the latter part of the decade. Consequently, the zinc price is forecast to remain buoyant through to 2025. We have also considered a downside scenario featuring stagflation caused, in part, by the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

Table of contents

  • Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
  • Medium term forecasts
    • Medium term outlook
    • China
    • India
    • Europe
    • USA
    • Market adjustments
    • Mine projects
    • Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
    • Geopolitical landscape
    • Environmental challenges
    • Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • China
    • Latin America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Smelter supply changes since last quarter
    • Africa
  • India
    • Europe
    • North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

  • The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
  • Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts
  • Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
  • Global zinc consumption by region
  • Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
  • Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
  • Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
  • Developing economies will drive consumption growth
  • Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
  • Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
  • Changes to forecasts
  • World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
  • Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
  • India will drive Asian consumption growth
  • Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
  • European zinc consumption
  • Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Mine project allowance breakdown
  • Mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 and 2023 but is to increase in most years to 2030
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
  • Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2026
  • World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Requirement of future smelter production
  • Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
  • 2020 smelter capability forecast has been increased by 119kt and lowered by 95kt in 2021
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
  • Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2023

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