Commodity Market Report

Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2024

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The rise in exchange stocks and the perception of a rise in invisible stocks together with general demand weakness have weighed on the zinc price in recent months. This has been counteracted by mine closures and together with the forecast recovery in demand, should see the price strengthen in the near term. However, rising mine supply and refined production and slowing demand growth will result in the refined market moving to surplus in the second half of this decade. This will undermine some of the price recovery.

Table of contents

  • Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
  • Medium term forecasts
    • Medium term outlook
    • China
    • India
    • Europe
    • USA
    • Smelter supply changes since last quarter
    • Africa
  • India
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Market adjustments
    • Mine projects
    • Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
    • Geopolitical landscape
    • Environmental challenges
    • Stricter limits on Chinese concentrate imports
    • Mining and mineral processing technology
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • China
    • Latin America
    • Oceania
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • North America

Tables and charts

This report includes 37 images and tables including:

  • The relative strength of the dollar plays a key role in influencing the zinc price
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
  • Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
  • Concentrate market balances table
  • Macro economic concerns and rising metal stocks will weigh on the zinc price in the medium term
  • Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts (Nominal)
  • Scenario prices and refined stocks in days of global consumption
  • Near- to medium-term price scenario price forecasts (Real $)
  • Global zinc consumption by region
  • Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
  • Developing economies will drive consumption growth
  • Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
  • Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
  • Demand destruction is a downside risk for most first-uses
  • Changes to forecasts
  • Increased smelter production capability is needed from 2034
  • World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Requirement of future smelter production
  • Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
  • Indian consumption growth will be fuelled by domestic demand
  • India will drive Asian consumption growth
  • European zinc consumption
  • Turkey and East European economies will drive Europe's zinc demand growth
  • Re-shoring appears to be boosting the construction on manufacturing capacity
  • Medium-term smelter capability forecast has been reduced but increased over the long-term
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027
  • Power prices are falling from the peak but to remain elevated
  • Mine production losses since mid-2023
  • World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025
  • Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
  • Requirement for new mine production
  • Mine project allowance breakdown
  • Mine production capability estimate was cut in 2022 and 2023 but is to increase in most years to 2030
  • Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2023-2027

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global zinc strategic planning outlook Q1 2024

    PDF 2.14 MB