European governments are attempting to limit the spread of Covid-19 by restricting movement. Therefore, many workplaces are reducing output or closing. Consumerism has declined and manufacturing – particularly in the automotive sector – has stalled. We will see a decline in European steel demand this year – but by how much? 80% of the European automotive industry is currently idle for two weeks. If the construction sector operates at 75% of expected output for that same period, demand will slide by just 1.8 million tonnes – barely 1% of the annual total. But we don't think a slowdown will be so brief. We currently factor in a one month go-slow. It could be longer. As demand falls, so too will production. And, unlike in China, we think production via the BF/BOF route will be hit hardest. This will exacerbate the impact of declines on steel-making raw materials such as iron ore and metallurgical coal.