As we commence 2020 it’s hard to argue against slower demand growth for iron ore (especially in China) and a decent recovery in seaborne supply. Prices will fall - it’s just a matter of how much and how soon! Our annual average price forecast for 2020 is $80/t. Experience from the last five years shows a typical high/low range of +/- 25% either side of the annual average. Applying this logic to our $80/t price forecast implies a high of ~$100/t and a low of ~$60/t in 2020. But what might provoke prices to hit these extremes? In this note we highlight five points to watch, specific to iron ore, that could have a significant impact on the market this year.