Iron ore: 5 things to look for in 2026

The global iron ore and steel markets are entering a phase of gradual yet significant transition. China's demand continues to weaken from ongoing pressure from the property downturn and soft infrastructure spending. On the supply side, iron ore pricing is becoming more complex as new indices reflect widening grade differentials. Additional supply from Australia, Brazil and Simandou is building towards potential oversupply, prompting miners to reassess product mix and market positioning. High-grade products are expected to remain resilient, supported by environmental requirements. Global trade flows are also evolving. Protectionist policies in the US and EU are influencing pellet demand and pricing, while India's growing import needs, driven by rapid steel expansion and domestic constraints, may become a new structural driver for seaborne trade. Will 2026 mark the beginning of a broader shift in market fundamentals?