Average seaborne iron ore breakeven prices have fallen to US$30/tonne (CFR China, 62% Fe fines basis) in 2016, a 16 % reduction compared with last year and a more than 50% decline since 2011. We expect 2016 will mark the low point for breakeven prices because of rising sea freight and fuel costs. We also expect strip ratios and sustaining capital expenditure to creep higher, which will increase breakeven prices. The rise in costs will be more pronounced at the top end of the cost curve as low-cost expansions and sustainable cost reductions by Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton will offset some of the uncontrollable cost increases for these low-cost producers. The attached Excel file contains breakeven data by asset and company from 2009 to 2025, along with total cash costs, freight assumptions, sustaining capex and VIU adjustments.
This report includes 2 file(s)
Iron ore breakeven prices 2009-2025 PDF - 427.20 KB 4 Pages, 0 Tables, 4 Figures
Iron ore breakeven prices 2016.xls XLS - 492.00 KB
This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.
For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.
Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.
We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.
Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.
Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.
Analyst Metal Mining Producer
Wood Mac has the highest quality data and is demanded by our staff.
Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company
Others can provide data but we value the quality of the Wood Mac analysis above other sources.
Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.
We work across every sector of oil, gas, power,renewables,chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.
Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.
At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.
Insight | Jul 2016
Iron ore breakeven prices 2009-2025
Have questions?Just let us know how to contact you and we will respond to you as soon as possible.