Iron ore energy transition outlook 2025 Report

Insight 10 June 2025

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Report summary

Steel CO2 emissions are projected to decline by 22% by 2050 in our base case, falling short of the contraction required to meet current climate goals. A more rapid and comprehensive decarbonisation will be required to meet, or even exceed, the 2 ˚C warming target. Accelerated carbon emissions reductions will be achieved through a combination of advancements in existing technologies, substantially lower hot metal production, improved scrap collection and use, and increased hydrogen-based DRI production. This means total demand for iron ore will significantly decline below our base case by 2050 as scrap displaces hot metal production. However, the energy transition also requires greater volumes of DRI, presenting a huge opportunity for suppliers of premium-grade iron ores.