Iron ore markets - long-term outlook - Q1 2021
Report summary
Table of contents
- What’s changed since Q4-2020?
- Price forecast revisions
- Key risks to our base case view:
-
The five-year view - what’s changed?
- Seaborne Trade
- Price Forecast
- Simplified market balance and implied clearing price:
- Price versus costs
- Premiums and discounts
- Price outlook for lump
-
Price outlook for pellets
- Past trends in pellet premia
- Future tends in pellet premia
-
The Long-Term Outlook (post-2025)
- Forecasting rationale
- What’s changed?
- Incentive price analysis
- Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
- Overview
- Asia
-
China
- Strong start to 2021 steel and hot metal production
- Steel and hot metal production peak expected this year
- Iron ore imports peak in 2023
- Iron ore demand from 2025 onward
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
- Taiwan
- South East Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- EU and the UK
- Turkey
- CIS
- Russia
- Ukraine
- North America
- United States
- Mexico
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Other South American countries
- Australia
- Middle East and North Africa
- Iran
- Algeria
- Egypt
- Africa
- South Africa
-
Overview
- Key changes to the seaborne supply forecast this quarter:
- Key trends by product type
- Sinter fines
- Pellet feed
- Lump
- Pellet
-
Regional analysis: key changes to our forecast
- Brazil
- Chile
- Peru
- Venezuela
- Canada
- United States
- Liberia
- Mauritania
- Sierra Leone
- Guinea
- South Africa
- Europe
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Kazakhstan
- China
- India
- Asia (excluding China and India)
- Iran
- Australia
- Brazil
- China
- India
- Indian reserves and production
- Key Indian producers
- Indian policy framework
- Africa
- Canada
- Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
- Sweden
- Chile
- Peru
- Introduction:
- Methodology:
- Dry bulk freight outlook – March 2021
Tables and charts
This report includes 61 images and tables including:
- Price forecast revisions (2015-2025)
- Price forecast revisions (2000-2025)
- Base case: tier 3 requirement
- High case: tier 3 requirement
- Base case: implied price
- High case: implied price
- Price and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
- Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (%)
- Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t)
- Iron ore lump premium
- Key demand forecast data
- China key demand data
- India crude steel production
- India iron ore imports
- Decline in Japanese imports will not be fully offset by growth in Korea
- Japan and Korea to consume equal volumes of iron ore by 2040
- South East Asia: Iron ore consumption
- Iron ore consumption: Share of Indonesia to increase
- Europe: key demand forecast data
- EU28 is responsible for 8% of imports
- but imports 32% of global pellet imports
- Turkish blast furnace iron ore consumption has the potential to grow in the medium term as new hot metal producing assets are commissioned
- Turkish domestic iron ore supply satisfies around one-third of domestic demand but as demand rises that share will fall to one-quarter
- Key demand forecast data
- North America: key demand forecast data
- Canadian iron ore consumption will be between 10-11Mpta to 2040.
- Canada produces pellets and is a major exporter of pellets and pellet feed.
- South America: key demand forecast data
- Brazil is the dominant consumer of iron ore in South America, but is only responsible for 2% of global iron ore consumption.
- Venezuelan iron ore consumption has been decimated by the economic collapse. We forecast a recovery but risk is negative.
- Middle East and North Africa: key demand forecast data
- The Middle East is not a major global iron ore consumer or importer
- But is responsible for 10% of seaborne pellet feed imports and 13% of global pellet imports
- DRI is the main iron ore consumer in Iran and will increase its share in the long-term
- Iran iron ore consumption by product pellet dominates!
- Egypt and Algeria iron ore consumption
- Egypt and Algeria DRI production
- Price forecast revision: the five-year view
- Blast furnace pellet premium
- Iron ore price forecast (a long-term perspective)
- Incentive price analysis – selected projects
- Project incentive prices (62% Fe fines equivalent CFR China) (Simandou @12% IRR)
- China hot metal production and iron ore imports
- BOF and EAF production forecast
- Long-term China iron ore forecast (Dry basis, 62% Fe equivalent)
- Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
- Global export forecast
- Iron ore production and exports by major country
- Iron ore exports by key company
- Global exports by product type
- China: domestic iron ore supply forecast revisions
- Contestable Private Production at different prices
- Implied Global Balance
- Cash cost curve
- West. Australia - North China freight rate
- Tubarao – Qingdao freight rate
- FOB + Freight (West Australia – China)
- FOB + Freight (Brazil – China)
- Dated Brent price forecasts and bunker prices YoY % forecasts mix (RHS)
- Key iron ore routes freight forecasts (rates in US$/t)
What's included
This report contains:
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