Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - April 2021

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30 April 2021

Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - April 2021

Report summary

Another month, another record price for iron ore! The benchmark 62% fines index broke through $193/t on April 27th, a few cents higher than the previous all time high recorded in February 2011. Back then the 90th percentile of the cost curve was well above $100/t, today it’s more like $60/t: this is a bonanza for the iron ore industry on a scale we’ve never seen! The market for high grade iron ore and direct charge feed is particularly hot as steel mills focus on maximising productivity in response to high steel prices and margins. Read our monthly update for the latest analysis on short term supply/demand dynamics and price outlook.

Table of contents

  • Benchmark index hits a new all time high
  • Technical indicators – resistance broken as booming steel prices and margins drive iron ore to new highs
  • China – still booming!
  • Imports are powering ahead
  • Demand recovery underway in the world ex-China
  • India - a strong start but risks are rising
  • Brazilian supply – all eyes on Vale’s road to recovery
  • Australian supply – a strong start to 2021, but can it last?
  • Chinese domestic ore production remains high
  • Indian supply – on the rise!
  • Inventories – Chinese p ort stocks are trending higher
  • Freight – short-term sentiment for capes remains strong

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Iron ore price: monthly average
  • Steel margins and iron ore spread
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • 62% vs 65% forward curves
  • Chinese import of iron ore
  • Contribution to Q1 change in Chinese imports
  • J/K/T: monthly pig iron production
  • EU27 + UK: monthly pig iron production
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • Seaborne exports of iron ore from Australia
  • Seaborne exports of iron ore from Brazil
  • Monthly production in 186 iron ore mine companies (10 kt)
  • Domestic concentrate prices in different regions (RMB/dmt)
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories - seasonally
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Monthly Brazil – China freight rates
  • Monthly West Australia – China freight rates
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - April 2021

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