Iron ore spot price fell 15% over the month of August to US$159/tonne at the time of writing. While we have been expecting iron ore prices to trend lower, the speed of the price contraction was impressive. Our analysis of market fundamentals shows support for iron ore prices at US$130/tonne. While technical indicators show prices should trade within a US$150-US$165/tonne range in the short term. Chinese announcements regarding the approach to balance economic growth and pollution concerns remain critical to the iron ore price trajectory. While improved iron ore supply availability will keep a lid on iron ore prices, this time of year – known as “Golden September and Silver October” – should provide support from what has already been a sharp correction. Overall, we are comfortable with our Q4 2021 price forecast of US$155/tonne, with prices declining to average US$125/tonne next year. However, there is more downside risk to prices now than at any other time this year.