The iron ore boom continues. This month saw the spot 62% index hit $175/t, its highest since September 2011, while the 65% index hit $200/t, just $5 below the all time high set in January 2011. Production costs are much lower now than they were in the last boom, meaning that margins are at record levels. But for how long will this bonanza last? If Chinese demand growth continues on this trajectory then we’re in for another bumper year because capacity constraints and heightened ESG risk will limit a meaningful near term supply response to China’s voracious appetite for seaborne ore. We still think supply and demand will become more closely aligned as the year progresses, but we are now coming from a much higher base. Price forecast revisions will be published in late March with the Q1-2021 Long Term Outlook.