Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook July 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Another phenomenal month for iron ore with the benchmark 62% Fe index averaging approximately $212/t. But the market took a hit in the final few days of the month with a decisive move below $200/t for the first time in two months. Is this a blip or a sign of things to come? We think the latter. The supply side of the equation remains undeniably tight, but China is getting serious about steel production cuts and as the various COVID related subsidies and fiscal stimulus measures fade so too will iron ore’s phenomenal bull run – it’s just a matter of how much and how soon! Read our monthly update for the latest analysis on short term supply/demand dynamics and price outlook.
Table of contents
- Turning point?
- Technical indicators – China’s intensified drive to reduce steel output, negatively impacted iron ore price but provided support to steel prices
- Global overview: passed the pig iron peak?
- China: demand topping out, but supply structurally tight
- Production cuts could force shift to lower grades
- Where next for Chinese imports?
- Chinese ore supply - tight due to Shanxi shutdowns
- Indian supply improving, but exports losing ground
- Inventories – Chinese p orts’ iron ore inventories increase as steel production growth slows.
- Freight – Capesize rates range bound, yet sentiment improving towards month end.
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Monthly iron ore price (US$/t CFR)Key quarterly forecast62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
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62% Fe Forward CurvesChinese pig iron productionGlobal (ex-China) pig iron productionPortside iron ore trading activity slowing down (kt per day)National blast furnace capacity utilisation rate stepping down (%)Chinese imports of iron ore (million tonnes)Chinese imports of iron ore by country: Jan-Jun, y/y change (million tonnes)Chinese domestic mine utilisation rate dropped due to restrictions on mining activity.The timing of restarts remains uncertain for mines in Shanxi Province (North China).
- 7 more item(s)...
What's included
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