Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook June 2021

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30 June 2021

Iron ore markets short-term outlook June 2021

Report summary

Iron ore's roller-coaster ride continues - and for the time being we're still on the way up! Following the wild volatility of May that saw prices fluctuate within a $50/t range, June was a month of consolidation within a higher and narrower band of $203-223/t. The market for high grade ore and direct charge feed remains hot due to a combination of supply constraints and a desire, particularly from ex-China steel mills, to maintain the focus on maximising productivity, despite margin compression. We still think iron ore prices will be lower in H2 than H1, on the basis that Chinese demand slows while Brazilian supply grows - but recent experience shows neither of these is a safe bet! Read our monthly update for the latest analysis on short term supply/demand dynamics and price outlook.

Table of contents

  • Another month, another all time high!
  • Technical indicators – China’s efforts to cool prices fail against continued strong steel demand
  • Global overview – bouncing back!
  • Chinese demand - upbeat in June
  • Brazilian exports on the rise ...
  • ... but high-grade products underperform
  • Chinese supply hit by Shanxi shutdown
  • India sets ground for another round of mine lease auctions
  • Inventories – Chinese p ort inventories continue to decline
  • Freight – Capesize rates down but well supported

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Monthly average iron ore price (US$/t CFR)
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • 62% Fe Forward Curves
  • CISA 10-day run-rates kept upbeating
  • Steel mills actively dredged iron ore from ports
  • Brazilian exports are on the rise, but supply of high grade fines from northern Brazil continues to underperform.
  • Despite lower supply of Carajas fines, high grade premiums have eased – mainly due to steel mill margin compression.
  • Chinese domestic mine utilisation rate remains at high level.
  • Shanxi iron ore price perform stronger than that in other regions.
  • Indian iron ore production
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories - seasonally
  • Chinese total steel inventories
  • Capesize freight rates to China
  • Share of freight rate in 62% Fe iron ore price
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook June 2021

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