Iron ore markets short-term outlook May 2021
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Report summary
Table of contents
- A new all time high
- Technical indicators – Iron ore prices retreat from record high as China increases measures to cooldown the market
- Chinese demand hits new highs
- China’s rising iron ore import bill
- Indian demand takes a hit
- Brazil
- Australian exports – muted
- Chinese ore production remains high
- Indian ore supply remains resilient
- Inventories – Chinese p orts’ iron ore inventories declined over last month indicating strength in demand
- Freight – Capesize segment mid-month’s retreat but fundamentals remain strong
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key quarterly forecast (please note - all price forecasts will be revised with publication of the Q2-2021 Long Term Outlook in June).Iron ore price: monthly averageIron ore price and hot metal spread
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62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels62% Fe Forward CurvesChina’s steel production boom .. continued through May according to CISA.China’s import dependency for iron ore is estimated 80% today.The cost of imported iron ore has ballooned over the past five years.Brazilian exports have increased by 13.5 million tonnes year-on-year, but shipments from northern Brazil have underperformed with Sao Luis share falling from 56% to 51%.Seaborne supply from Sao Luis (Carajas fines) is a key driver of high grade price premiums: chart shows relationship between exports from Sao Luis and the 62-65% Fe spread.Chinese domestic ore production reached its highest level of this year due to high iron ore prices and strong demand.
- 8 more item(s)...
What's included
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