Insight
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6 Pages

Iron ore: what to look for in 2016


Iron ore: what to look for in 2016

Report summary

Weak demand and persistent deflationary pressure pose downside risk to iron ore in 2016. The latest fall in crude oil and ongoing weakness in producer currencies could erode cost support below our base case and prevent any meaningful price recovery in a market characterised by excess supply capability and stagnant demand. In this Insight we highlight some key themes and risks for iron ore in 2016.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Iron ore: what to look for in 2016 PDF - 332.25 KB 6 Pages, 0 Tables, 4 Figures

Description

This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Theme 1: Chinese demand could be worse than forecast.
  • Theme 2: supply side shake-out will accelerate industry consolidation
  • Theme 3: cost deflation could have further to run.
  • Theme 4: will China continue to support loss making mines?
  • Theme 5: project delays
    • Minas Rio (Anglo American)
    • Serra Sul (S11D) (Vale)
    • Roy Hill (Hancock Prospecting)
  • Theme 6: upside risk for DR-grade pellet premia
  • Theme 7: value in use no longer holds; low grade fines preferred.
  • Theme 8: paper trading is taking off.

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Theme 1: Chinese demand could be worse than forecast.
  • Theme 2: supply side shake-out will accelerate industry consolidation
    • Chart 1: Rising share of the majors
    • Chart 2: Price related closures
  • Theme 3: cost deflation could have further to run.
  • Theme 4: will China continue to support loss making mines?
  • Theme 5: project delays
  • Theme 6: upside risk for DR-grade pellet premia
  • Theme 7: value in use no longer holds; low grade fines preferred.
    • Chart 3: Iron ore prices: 62% Fe vs. 58% Fe
    • Chart 4: FMG realised price
  • Theme 8: paper trading is taking off.
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