Insight
Nickel's next unintended squeeze
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Report summary
The LME's efforts to increase the total capacity of metal eligible for delivery to the exchanges added over 170kt Ni from July 2023 through to May 2024. All of it is full plate cathode and wholly produced in China or through a Chinese controlled entity in Indonesia. By October 2024, 275 kt Ni will have been suspended from good delivery under the LME's own rules or imposed governmental sanctions. In addition, the closure of BHP's Nickel West operation in October will remove a further 65 kt Ni capacity. Far from increased liquidity, it appears that availability will be tighter in Q4 2024 than in 2022, with real implications for nickel prices and premia.
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