Reserve Depletion and Replacement Analysis

Over the past decade, the world's six major iron ore producers have drawn down their marketable reserves rather than expanded them — and the divergence in performance is striking. Reserve replacement ratios range from 159% at Champion Iron to just 28% at Vale, while mine lives, ore grades and replacement costs vary sharply across the peer group. This analysis examines reserve trends, project pipelines and the cost of reserve additions across BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, Fortescue, Anglo American and Champion Iron between FY2016 and FY2025. The findings show that reserve trajectories are shaped less by geology and more by project execution, capital allocation and, in some cases, event-driven write-downs. With active replacement programmes now underway across the Pilbara and beyond, the key question is whether the quality and timing of new additions can keep pace with accelerating depletion.