Steel: 5 things to look for in 2021 Report

Insight 27 January 2021

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Report summary

Chinese demand upside is the biggest risk to our steel markets view – and demand growth shows no signs of slowing. In China and the RoW steel demand could be boosted by post-pandemic stimulus – the vaccination roll-out gives real cause for optimism. But aside from Pandemic driven economies and Chinese demand, what uncertainties are key to global steel markets this year? 1) The US has the potential for a steel demand frenzy 2) Greenwashing will be rife – look beyond the bluster 3) Can super-high HRC prices persist? 4) China has entered the international scrap market – is a scrap tsunami headed East? 5) Could booming raw materials costs force Chinese steel prices higher?

Coronavirus: where will the macroeconomy go from here?
The biggest risk to our forecast remains Chinese demand upside
- 1) Potential exists for a US steel demand frenzy
- 2) Greenwashing, hyperbole and talk
- 3) Will super-high HRC prices persist?
- 4) China enters international scrap markets
- 5) Could coal and iron ore price jumps force Chinese steel prices higher?
Potential exists for a US steel demand frenzy
- But our base case is that excitement will be subdued
- The excitement will not become a frenzy
Greenwashing, hyperbole and talk
- But material action on decarbonising steelmaking will not occur this year
Will short-term balance shocks – and subsequent high HRC prices – continue?
China joins international scrap markets
Runaway raw materials costs to force Chinese steel prices upwards?