Steel: 5 things to look for in 2025

Reflecting on 2024, the demand uptick that everyone prepared for was dragged down by China’s lasting property sector crisis and overcapacity. It was further exacerbated by the delayed recovery of the European markets. Trade remained volatile, as Chinese exports reached 110 Mt in 2024, stirring tensions. Steel prices reached a bottom, and margins bled, prompting production cuts and delays in green initiatives by steelmakers. We see some glimmer of hope for 2025, which is set to bring a fragile recovery to steel demand as key markets aim for a flattish rebound. However, challenges like weak profitability and trade tensions will persist. At the same time, EAF technology faces hurdles from high costs and a tight scrap market, but gradual adoption is expected and imperative. The question of whether to decarbonise or prioritise financial health has emerged. Policy developments around the world will draft the narrative as markets turn cautiously optimistic.