Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - short-term outlook - February 2021
Report summary
A bullish start to the Year of the Ox: • Chinese BOF’s didn’t switch off for the New Year holiday – boosting output growth • India recorded its sixth consecutive month of production growth – up 7% year-on-year • In the US and the EU HRC prices have doubled from 2020 lows But will the bulls or the bears end up on top? • The US is on the cusp of a demand bonanza – but could video games de-rail the steel boom? • Chinese infrastructure is growing, cars are selling and manufactures are exporting. But any decline in residential construction will swiftly erase those gains • EU production has had issues and trade is disrupted – boosting prices. But demand is weak, purchases are being delayed and capacity has returned – all bearish for price Read this month’s short-term outlook for an assessment of these risks.
Table of contents
- A bullish start to the Year of the Ox:
- Where are steel prices going to go next?
-
China
- A bullish start to year of the Ox
- Steel output is just unstoppable, even for the holiday and poor profitability
- Steel demand release will be faster
-
US
- What can go wrong on US’ steel bonanza ?
- 1) High prices to cause demand destruction
- 2) Lingering parts chain disruption to hamper auto production
- 3) last but not least, (still) COVID-19
-
EU and UK
- Where will prices head next?
- The case for the bulls
- Production
- Trade
- The case for the bears
- Demand
- Short-term supply/demand balances
- H1 2021 downside price risk, 2022 upside demand potential
-
Japan
- Mixed signals on recovery in Q1 2021
- Steel industry ‘cautious’ on revival
- Restructuring on agenda
- Going Green
-
South Korea
- Steel recovery strengthens
- Scope of improvement for ‘diffident’ domestic consumption
- Return to ‘2019’ base in sight
-
India
- Strong momentum continues for Indian steel production
- Government’s impetus on infrastructure, automotive and housing sector
- Iron ore
- Coal
Tables and charts
This report includes 37 images and tables including:
- AFSU (columns left axis) and growth (lines right axis)
- Key annual data
- Hot metal cost has reached the highest point in history
- rebar margin of BOF has entered the negative territory
- Daily crude steel output of CISA members steelmakers
- BF utilisation rate remained high during the CNY break
- Automotive key leading indicators
- Where will prices head next?
- EU steel and scrap prices rallied hard in Q4 2020
- They may hold for H1 but we expect prices to trend downwards this year
- EU key quarterly forecast
- Quarterly CS
- Blast furnace capacity
- Quarterly CSP forecast
- Key demand sectors
- Quarterly and annual steel prices
- Quarterly and annual metallics prices
- International HRC prices indexed
- Chinese HRC
- EU HRC
- US HRC
- Indian HRC
- Chinese rebar
- EU rebar
- US rebar
- Monthly price history
- Global crude-steel production
- Global PMI indicators
- Emerging markets apparent finished steel use
- Mature economies steel consumption
- Indian crude steel production and growth
- Indian steel exports
- US crude steel production and capacity utilisation
- US employment
- Summary
What's included
This report contains:
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