Commodity Market Report

Steel short-term outlook April 2022

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29 April 2022

Steel short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

The global outlook has been revised downwards given the Russia-Ukraine war and rising inflation and commodity prices. Chinese recovery prospects have been dented by rising coronavirus infections. Subdued demand outlook and rising supply with weigh on steel prices in the near term. The unravelling of events amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict poses the biggest near-term risk to our forecast. Our April short-term outlook covers: • Demand sentiments and status of leading consumption indicators • Supply-side risks and opportunities • Road-to-recovery from the Russia-Ukraine war and a new wave of coronavirus infections • Steel price outlook and cost implications

Table of contents

    • Lockdowns in China severely dented the steel demand recovery in April
    • Modest recovery expected in May; demand to stabilise in H2
    • US steel prices: still well supported, but golden days are over
    • European steel prices stopped their upward trends but remain elevated
    • Fear of demand destruction looms in Europe due to cost inflation
    • Worst scenario for the automotive sector
    • Crude steel production in Europe down in 2022
    • Ukraine’s lost volume
    • Russia’s exclusion from Europe
    • EU takes steps to suspend all duties on imports from Ukraine
    • Booming steel production, despite waning demand
    • Why is steel demand not picking up?
    • What is the demand outlook for the near term?
    • Steel exports will support production
    • Recovery roadmap threatened by the clout of uncertainty
    • Iron Ore
    • Coal
    • Scrap
    • Green steel initiatives
    • Other key developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Steel production growth
  • HRC prices in Japan
  • Daily new Covid cases in China
  • Covid cases by region
  • Total long steel inventories (Mt)
  • Steel margins (RMB/t)
  • HRC prices and US-China price premia
  • Production, imports and imports as share of demand
  • Global HRC prices
  • Pig iron and scrap prices
  • EU Passenger car registrations
  • EU-27+ UK crude steel and hot metal production
  • Russia and Ukraine crude steel production
  • Russia and Ukraine steel exports in 2021
  • Ukraine steelmaking status
  • Indian BF and IF grade rebar prices
  • Crude steel production and steel exports
  • Japan: Trade balance (2022 vs 2021 vs 2020)
  • South Korea: Trade balance (2022 vs 2021 vs 2020)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Steel short-term outlook April 2022

    PDF 1.86 MB