Steel short-term outlook December 2023

The global steel sector witnessed a choppy year with disproportionate demand growth across regions. While some countries like India outperformed with strong double-digit growths, western countries struggled to grow under macroeconomic pressures. Chinese steel demand is also estimated to be 2-3% lower than last year – dragging down the global demand growth. Subsequently, we expect 2023 steel demand to end at similar levels compared to the previous year. 2024 will witness the much-anticipated demand recovery. While China will witness a marginal uptick, the EU will see a significant revival, with projected growth of 6% year-on-year, owing to improved economic conditions. India will continue to outperform with an expected 6% year-on-year rise led by infrastructure push. Overall, we expect steel demand in 2024 to grow by 3% year-on-year.