Chinese steel demand will likely see seasonal recovery in late Q3 as the impact of recent flooding diminishes. However, a bearish outlook from the property and infrastructure sectors will cap upside of construction steel demand. But the fall in demand will not necessarily translate into plunging steel prices, given local governments are aiming to cut crude steel supply in H2. This will result in a 15% fall in H2 compared with H1. Also in this month’s short-term outlook: • How will the imminent infrastructure bill impact US construction steel demand? • How does ArcelorMittal’s Sestao H-DRI-EAF project compare to HYBRIT? • Will India continue its high steel exports to Europe?