Commodity Market Report
Steel short-term outlook May 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global steel consumption outlook turns bearish. Impact of Russia-Ukraine war, rising cost inflation, supply chain disruptions and slowing investments are weighing on demand prospects. Chinese recovery seems more plausible in June considering easing lockdowns, pent-up consumer spending and revival of construction and industrial activities. Gloomy demand outlook and rising supply with weigh on steel prices in the near term. The implication of Russia-Ukraine war is a key monitorable to our forecast. Our May short-term outlook covers: • Near term demand outlook and status of leading consumption indicators • Supply-side scenario • Key risks and opportunities • Steel price outlook and cost implications
Table of contents
-
China
- Demand
- Supply
- Trade
- Prices
-
US
- Demand
- Biden’s infrastructure bill: growth is around the corner but not in 2022
- Supply and Trade
- If domestic supply fails
- imports come to the rescue
- Prices
- High base to linger in 2022
-
EU27 and UK
- Demand
- Fear of demand destruction looms in Europe due to cost inflation
- Worst scenario for the automotive sector
- Supply
- Crude steel production in Europe down in 2022
- Prices
- European steel prices and demand come off but Indian duties could provide some support
-
Russia and Ukraine
- Ukraine’s lost volume
- Russia’s increasing isolation
- EU, UK, and the US are suspending all duties on imports from Ukraine
-
Turkey
- Turkey’s steel exports increase
-
India
- Demand
- Supply
- Trade
- Prices
-
Japan and South Korea
- Demand
- Construction to be the key growth determinant
- Automotive to disappoint
- Manufacturing to stay put
- Supply
- Steel Costs
- Iron Ore
- Coal
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key indicators
- Transportation index
- Steel consumption (Mt)
- Utilisation levels (%)
- Finished steel inventory (Mt)
- Steel prices (RMB/t)
- Steel margins (RMB/t)
- Non-residential spending and IP for construction steel
- Production and trade
- US and China HRC prices and premia
- US HRC and rebar prices and premia
- EU Passenger car registrations
- 15 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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