Commodity Market Report
Steel short-term outlook October 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The steel industry has been plagued by power shortages over the past few months. Weakening supply and steady consumption will threaten market balances and have a major bearing on steel prices. The power crisis has been a blessing in disguise for China as it now looks poised to meet its 2021 steel output target. Winter cuts and weak demand fundamentals will supplement the gloomy supply outlook. Our October short-term outlook covers: - Impact of power shortages on demand-supply balance and implications on prices - China’s weakening demand and curbs on steel output - India’s strong consumption rebound and supply disparity between players - Market balances and price competition in the US and EU
Table of contents
-
China
- China’sdifficultsteel productiontargetnow achievable
- Power restrictionsdistressed industrial production
- and dealt a substantial blow tosteel industryin September
- No major respite in October despiteeasingpowerscenario
- Whatcan weexpect in Q4?
- Demand to improve but not enough to turn the tide
- Crude steel production toremainsluggish but enough to achieve government’starget
-
US
- Supply/demand: on route to equilibrium?
- Capacity: yes, more underway
- US prices: it doesn’t get better than 2021
-
EU and UK
- High import penetration and a softening in purchasing activity contribute to the recent price contraction
- Crude steel production in Europe bounces back in September but the growth is slowing down
-
India
- Surging coal prices stall growth momentum of Indian steel production
- Domestic steel demand recovers despite struggling automotive sector
- Iron Ore
- Coal
- Scrap
- Green steel initiatives
- Other key industry developments
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Daily crude steel production (Mt)
- Apparent finished steel demand (Mt)
- Crude steel production and utilisation rate
- IP for selected key leading indicators
- US crude steel capacity growth
- US-China price premia
- EU-27+ UK crude steel production
- EU passenger car registrations
- Steel HRC Northern Europe price
- Steel rebar Northern Europe price
- GST collection and growth (in US$ terms)
- Automotive sales
What's included
This report contains:
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