Webinar: Will aluminium supply respond as demand falters?
As a single market, China’s exit strategy from lockdown has been coordinated and largely straightforward with clearly timed goal posts. It is becoming apparent that the same is not true for the ROW. Asymmetric exit from lockdown means that unlike the global financial crisis we are unlikely to see a synchronised recovery in economic activity and aluminium demand. Meanwhile, surpluses continued to build as smelters churned out metal despite the widespread shutdown of plants producing semi-finished products. It is not just the age-old argument of high shutdown and restart costs that is impeding a supply-side response. ROW output is indeed set to move higher in the coming months as greenfield projects are commissioned.