Will Indonesia keep feeding its nickel giants?

LME nickel prices hit 18-month high as markets panic over Indonesia's proposed ore quota cuts. But is the fear justified? Indonesia has proposed slashing its 2026 RKAB quota from 379 million wet metric tonnes to 250-260 Mwmt—a dramatic one-third reduction. As the world's dominant nickel producer accounting for two-thirds of global output, this headline cut has sent shockwaves through markets fearing severe shortages. The reality is far more nuanced. Indonesia's quota utilisation fell well below approved levels last year. Our analysis reveals the actual production impact could be material, but not catastrophic. Four wildcards could alter the outcome: who gets cut matters more than aggregate numbers; mid-year amendments are permitted; Indonesia's enforcement track record suggests gaps may emerge; and smelters likely stockpiled ore in anticipation. Will quota constraints bite, or become another chapter in Indonesia's pattern of mid-year adjustments?