China syndrome: Future nickel supply and long term price Report

Insight 03 October 2013

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Report summary

In the two prior insights in this trilogy - "The Magnificent Seven: Current status of new laterite Ni projects" and "Mission Impossible: Averting the long-term nickel shortage" – the underlying conclusion was that the combination of commissioning issues and delays in construction that would almost inevitably be associated future projects would make it very difficult for "western" producers to provide sufficient nickel units to meet our long term demand requirement of 400kt by 2025. Indeed...

Executive summary
Test for the west
Chinese demand – leading the world
Chinese resourcefulness - the rise of NPI
Chinese future – sufficient NPI capacity already exists
Indonesian imponderable
The sting – less from the west
Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

China drives long term demand for nickel
Chinese total primary nickel consumption (kt)
Chinese primary nickel use in stainless only (kt)

Chinese total nickel use in stainless (kt)
Chinese total nickel use in stainless (%)
The growing share of NPI in primary nickel use in Chinese stainless
Additional NPI needed to meet long term NPI requirement in Chinese stainless steel
Global long-term nickel requirement from China and RoW
RoW nickel requirement of 200kt needs incentive price of about $10/lb