Australia North Carnarvon exploration basin
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Report summary
The vast majority of exploration drilling in the North Carnarvon basin has been in the Mesozoic Northwest Shelf play. However, over the last 10 years explorers have moved into the deepwater sector of the basin, resulting in large gas/condensate discoveries. Shelf exploration has also proven to be prolific and, in addition to the large gas volumes discovered, small, cheap oil developments have been quickly tied back to existing infrastructure. The basin currently supplies four LNG facilities, with Gorgon LNG and Wheatstone LNG delivering first cargoes in 2016 and 2017 respectively.The outlook for the basin is for a similar scale of exploration success, but with marginal economics due to the relatively high cost of exploration and development, particularly in the deepwater play where the largest discoveries are expected to be made. Shelf exploration remains relatively inexpensive, but pool sizes are expected to be small.
What's included
This report contains
Table of contents
- Key facts
- Summary and key issues
- Location maps
- Participation
- Key companies
- Geology
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Exploration
- Wells drilled
- Basin success rates
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Reserves and resources
- Volumes discovered
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Prospective resource potential
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Play inputs
- Creaming curve and key play data
- Model field pool size distribution
- Existing discoveries and modelled prospective resource pool size distribution
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Play inputs
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Development
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Prospective resource costs and underlying development assumptions
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
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Prospective resource costs and underlying development assumptions
- Costs
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Fiscal and regulatory
- Licensing
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Fiscal terms
- Typical fiscal terms
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Economic assumptions
- Oil and gas prices
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Economic analysis
- TYP economics
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Outlook economics
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Development value
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
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Prospect breakeven price
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Expected monetary value (EMV)
- Play economics
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Development value
- Full cycle basin economics
- Implied acreage value
Tables and charts
This report includes 73 images and tables including:
Tables
- Play level data
- Assumptions
- Key licence holders
- Company success rates and discoveries
- Key play characteristics
- Recent discovery costs
- Summary of discovery and development costs
- Key basin data
- Top discoveries (TYP period)
- Forecast data by Play (outlook)
- Full-cycle economic analysis
- Average value of future discoveries and implied acreage value
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Development: Table 1
- Development: Table 2
- Development: Table 3
- Fiscal and regulatory: Table 1
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Reserves and resources: Table 4
- Reserves and resources: Table 5
- Reserves and resources: Table 6
Images
- Summary and key issues: Image 1
- Summary and key issues: Image 2
- Summary and key issues: Image 3
- Location maps: Image 1
- Location maps: Image 2
- Licensed exploration acreage
- Expiry forecast of current licences
- Gross exploration wells completed by operator
- Net exploration wells completed by participant
- Exploration and appraisal spend
- Exploration spend per well and average well depth
- Drilling activity by well type
- Cumulative exploration wells by play
- Discoveries and success rates
- Discoveries by licence year and drilling year
- Basin creaming curve
- Volumes discovered by year
- Average discovery size and volume per well by year
- Cumulative discoveries by play
- Cumulative volumes discovered by play
- Brent and local oil price assumptions
- Henry Hub and local gas price assumptions
- Economic assumptions: Image 3
- Value creation, spend and volume discovered
- Returns by drilling year
- Breakeven price versus prospect size
- Value creation versus investment
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Mesozoic Northwest Shelf
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Exmouth Sub-basin
- Reserves and resources: Image 7
- Mesozoic Deepwater
- Value of potential discoveries
- Unit value of potential discoveries
- Value of potential discoveries
- Unit value of potential discoveries
- Value of potential discoveries
- Unit value of potential discoveries
- Breakeven price of exploration
- Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
- Breakeven price of exploration
- Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
- Breakeven price of exploration
- Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
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