Asset Report

Brazil Santos exploration basin

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13 March 2018

Brazil Santos exploration basin

Report summary

Nearly 36 billion barrels of oil equivalent have been discovered in the basin as a whole to date, the vast majority of which was found in the last ten years. The Lula oil find in 2006 was the first of several giants that confirmed the Early Cretaceous pre-salt to be the world's largest new oil play of recent years. Value creation in the Santos Basin over the past ten years has been phenomenal, due to the super-giant volumes discovered in this play.  Despite the basin's huge yet-to-find volumes, value creation and returns in our outlook period are much poorer than in the last decade, due largely to the new PSC terms and the high-cost environment. Our outlook of the full-cycle economics of the Santos basin assumes an IRR of 12% at Base prices.

Table of contents

  • Key facts
    • Key issues include:
  • Location maps
  • Participation
  • Key companies
  • Geology
    • Wells drilled
    • Basin success rates
    • Volumes discovered
      • Prospective resource potential
    • Play inputs
      • Creaming curve and key play data
      • Model field pool size distribution
      • Existing discoveries and modelled yet-to-find pool size distribution
    • Prospective resource costs and underlying development assumptions
    • Summary of discovery and development costs
    • Licensing
    • Fiscal terms
    • Oil and gas prices
    • TYP economics
    • Outlook economics
    • Development value
      • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
    • Prospect breakeven price
      • Early Cretaceous - pre-salt
      • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
      • Expected monetary value (EMV)
    • Play economics
    • Full cycle basin economics
    • Implied acreage value
      • Average value of future discoveries and implied acreage value

Tables and charts

This report includes 65 images and tables including:

  • Play level data
  • Assumptions
  • Key facts: Table 3
  • Value creation versus investment (TYP period)
  • Value creation versus investment (outlook)
  • Exploration history map
  • Location maps: Image 2
  • Licensed exploration acreage
  • Expiry forecast of current licences
  • Key licence holders
  • Key well operators (TYP period)
  • Gross exploration wells completed by operator
  • Net exploration wells completed by participant
  • Company success rates and discoveries
  • Key companies: Table 4
  • Key play characteristics
  • Recent discovery costs
  • Commerciality index
  • Drilling activity by well type
  • Cumulative exploration wells by play
  • Discoveries and success rates
  • Discoveries by licence year and drilling year
  • Basin creaming curve
  • Key basin data
  • Volumes discovered by year
  • Average discovery size and volume per well by year
  • Top discoveries (TYP period)
  • Cumulative discoveries by play
  • Cumulative volumes discovered by play
  • Early Cretaceous pre-salt
  • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
  • Costs: Table 2
  • Exploration and appraisal spend
  • Exploration spend per well and average well depth
  • Typical fiscal terms - PSC - Early Cretaceous pre-salt play
  • Typical fiscal terms - concession contract - Late Cretaceous-Tertiary Oil play
  • Brent and local oil price assumptions
  • Henry Hub and local gas price assumptions
  • Value creation, spend and volume discovered
  • Returns by drilling year
  • Breakeven price versus prospect size
  • Value creation versus investment
  • Value of potential discoveries
  • Unit value of potential discoveries
  • Early Cretaceous - pre-salt
  • Economic analysis: Table 4
  • Full cycle economic analysis
  • Forecast data by play (outlook)
  • Early Cretaceous pre-salt
  • Reserves and resources: Table 4
  • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
  • Reserves and resources: Table 5
  • Early Cretaceous pre-salt
  • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
  • Early Cretaceous pre-salt
  • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
  • Value of potential discoveries
  • Unit value of potential discoveries
  • Breakeven price of exploration
  • Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
  • Breakeven price of exploration
  • Discount rate breakeven price sensitivities
  • Early Cretaceous pre-salt
  • Late Cretaceous - Tertiary oil
  • Economic analysis: Table 6

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Brazil Santos.zip

    ZIP 3.25 MB

  • Document

    Brazil Santos exploration basin

    PDF 3.85 MB

  • Document

    Brazil Santos exploration basin

    ZIP 6.91 MB