China and Covid-19: Returning lockdowns increase downside risk to demand Report

Insight 19 July 2022

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Report summary

China's oil demand has been recovering since the severe hit of Omicron outbreaks in April. However, as Covid cases rebounded in late June/early July, when more transmissible Omicron sub-variants were first detected, modified lockdowns are returning with curbs imposed pre-emptively in multiple places. China's zero-Covid policy and recurring outbreaks lead to downside risks to China's oil demand recovery in H2 2022 and into 2023. In this Insight slide deck, we address the following topics: • The impact of China's Covid policy and the possibility of a shift away from zero-Covid • Quantifying the risk to China's demand by product through 2023 • Uncertainties that remain to our base case outlook