Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils short-term outlook May 2020

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01 May 2020

Macro Oils short-term outlook May 2020

Report summary

What a month it has been. A lot has changed since our 30 March 2020 Monthly Update including wider implementation of coronavirus containment measures and a dramatic OPEC+ meeting that concluded 12 April 2020. But for all the changes, our price forecast for Brent remains largely the same. The OPEC+ deal production cuts take effect 1 May and we expect a shift in the oversupplied market to start this month and continue during June. The updated forecast continues to show that oil demand was at its lowest point in April, while OPEC production falls sharply this month. Highlights of our Macro Oils short term outlook include: • Our updated short-term macroeconomic forecast and a downward revision to demand • Implementation of the new OPEC+ cuts and if we expect full compliance • Our latest assessment of US Lower 48 production and the impact of shut-ins and frac holidays • The US storage situation and other aspects of global storage

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