Covid-19 impact revisited: Containment measures lead to US demand destruction in Q2 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic epicenter shifted to the US in late March, with confirmed cases over 160,000 as of 31 Mar and cases reported in all 50 states. In the absence of a comprehensive federal containment policy, state governments and local authorities have implemented a myriad of containment measures with varying levels of restrictions and durations. For the Macro Oils Monthly Update of 30 March, we forecast US oil demand to fall 3.0 million b/d year-on-year in Q2 2020, with absolute values dropping to the lowest levels since 1993. In this Insight, we provide more detail of this short-term US demand forecast. Topics include: • How has the Covid-19 containment response has impacted overall US oil demand? • What does the state and local-level response to the pandemic mean for US gasoline demand? • How will the closure in non-essential businesses, economic weakness affect demand for diesel? • When will US jet fuel demand recover from the drastic reductions in air travel?