Covid-19 impact revisited: signs point to a greater shock in China’s Q1 oil demand in 2020

The daily number of new Covid-19 cases continues to fall in China, but it will take longer for the world's second largest economy to return to normal. Stringent containment measures have put the brakes on many economic activities and the lingering impact is still causing trouble for the recovery of the economy and oil demand. In this new Insight, we update our short term forecast for China's oil demand. For this analysis, we look at the affected weeks and separated mainland China into three groups: the Covid-19 epicenter (Hubei), the economic recovery oriented provinces (eastern coastal region) and the rest. Hubei remains under a strict lockdown, but the eastern coastal region in particular is gearing up its economic recovery.