Dual supply shock scenario: what would happen if Iran and UAE open the taps?

We stress-test a scenario in which Iran and the UAE both produce well above our base case - and what it means for oil markets, 2028-2035. If the UAE ramps up faster than forecast and Iran, released from sanctions, recovers quickly, together they could add an additional 1.6 million b/d above base case by 2029. Brent would fall by more than US$20/bbl below our base case in 2028 as oversupply weighs on the market, then hold at US$3-7/bbl below through the 2030s before converging to our base case price by 2035 (~US$70/bbl). US Lower 48 supply reacts fastest shaving over one million b/d off the forecast in 2028; Latin America and others defer projects; prices recover by 2035 as the market rebalances.