End of the ICE age? Europe's shift from oil to electric powered vehicles Report

Insight 30 August 2017

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Report summary

Policy support for "zero tailpipe emissions" from light-duty vehicles is building in Europe. In several countries – including France, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway – legislators and governments have announced their intentions to end the sale of conventional gasoline and diesel cars by 2040 at the latest. If such policies were to gain momentum across Europe, then – in today's terms – annual passenger car sales of 17 million and roughly 3.6 million b/d of road fuel demand from conventional cars could be at stake. This report provides an overview of those proposals, including the ambiguities behind many of the proposals. Furthermore, we present our base case for EV adoption in Europe, as sales of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars are increasingly displaced by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) over the next two decades. The associated impacts on gasoline and diesel demand are assessed alongside the impacts on European power markets.

Why buy this report?

Our experts in oils and refining and commodity analytics take a deep dive into Europe's various regulatory movements toward electric vehicles. This analysis can help you:

Understand how European policy could serve as a bellwether for the future of oil-based transport and the advent of EV adoption
Look ahead to a market less reliant on oil and more on battery technology
Identify areas for growth and opportunity in emerging EV markets

Wood Mackenzie's recent acquisitions and in-house expertise are quickly establishing it as a significant force in research and analytics of power and renewables. Combined with our longstanding presence as oil market specialists for more than 40 years, our expanding knowledge of wind, solar, and renewable energy markets gives you a complete picture of the contemporary energy landscape.

Focusing on European policy, this report includes:

Effects of "zero-tailpipe emissions" policy and targets to end the sale of gasoline- and diesel-fueled cars
Forecasted demand growth for EVs
What it means for the internal combustion engine to be displaced by battery power

European governments target light vehicles in an effort to tackle carbon and NOx emissions
- Executive summary
- Current proposals for restricting conventional vehicle sales
- Ambiguities
- The European EV market
- Electric vehicle sales and fleet outlook
- Road fuel demand outlook
- Electricity demand outlook
- EVs and grid stability
- EV charging infrastructure
- An uncertain future