Global oil demand: 5 risks in 2018

2018 will be a pivotal year for the global oil market. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the impact of policy changes in the US and China are in focus. In the US we will monitor the impact of tax reform and watch for any acceleration in interest rate tightening. What impact could this have on corporates, and indeed financial markets, accustomed to low borrowing costs? In China, we see GDP deceleration as the government focuses on controlling risk and leverage in the financial sector, and raising the quality of economic growth. For oil demand itself, 2018 will be the first real test of electric vehicle sales as subsidies are phased out for some US producers. Fuel efficiency will be another metric to watch – not only possible changes to US fuel efficiency standards, but also the impact of US consumer preference towards trucks and larger less fuel efficient vehicles. Will this continue?