Global oil demand: 5 risks in 2019

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Global demand is expected to rise by 1.1 million b/d in 2019, reaching an annual average of 100 million b/d. It is based on an easing of global GDP growth to 2.8%, a forecast that we are maintaining despite the bearish sentiment. But what are the major risks to watch for this year? Could GDP decelerate more quickly, causing diesel demand growth to slow further? Could lower fuel prices cause gasoline demand to surprise to the upside? And what are the themes to watch? We await the finalisation of various fuel efficiency standards, not for the risk they pose to 2019 but for the risk to the outlook to 2030. As for biofuels, are policies pushing them forward again?

Table of contents

  • Demand growth in a bearish world
  • The wildcards behind diesel demand
  • Upside to gasoline demand
  • Finalizing fuel efficiency standards: Europe and the US
  • Policy push for biofuels

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Global oil demand
  • Year-on-year change in China diesel/gasoil demand
  • Road fuel demand from passenger cars: indexed to 2005

What's included

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    Global oil demand: 5 risks in 2019

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