Long-term oil supply outlook - update June 2013

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Report summary

In tandem with release of our latest global dataset in the Global Oil Supply Tool, we outline the key trends in our forecast to 2030.  Included as appendices in this report are updates on breakeven costs for new sources of supply and the political assumptions behind our supply outlook.  A slide pack looking at key trends in global supply is available as a related download.  The analysis is based on the supply commentary within the latest Long Term Outlook published in our sister Macro Oils...

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Long-term oil supply outlook - update June 2013

    PDF 1.07 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Non-OPEC
    • US onshore Lower 48 production shows dramatic growth
    • OPEC Supply Capacity Outlook
    • Appendix 1: The cost of marginal new supply
    • Appendix 2: Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
    • OPEC
    • Non-OPEC

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:


  • Table 1: Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
  • Long-term oil supply outlook - update June 2013: Table 2
  • Table 3: OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)


  • Chart 1: Year-on-year total supply production capacity growth/decline by region
  • Map 1: Key signposts for supply
  • Chart 2: Global capacity split in 2015
  • Chart 3: Global capacity split in 2030
  • Chart 4: Non-OPEC regional production
  • Chart 5: Change to non-OPEC regional supply since November 2012 Long Term Update
  • Map 2: Growth of North American crude production by region, 2012-2015 and 2015-2020
  • Chart 6: OPEC Production capacity
  • Chart 7: Change to OPEC capacity since November 2012 Long Term Outlook
  • Chart 8: Breakeven oil prices for probable new developments

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