As the world struggles to recover from the coronavirus outbreak, we face unprecedented uncertainty. When will the pandemic cease globally and how long does it take for the global economy to revive? With a wide array of unpredictable outcomes, for our Macro Oils spring long-term outlook, we made key assumptions on possible outcomes. A return to economic growth in 2021 brings a return to oil demand annual increases from that year. However, starting from a sharply lower base in 2020 means liquids demand does not reach our H2 2019 forecast level until after 2030. World oil supply growth resumes in 2021 at a slower rate. US Lower 48 supply is particularly hit hard in the forecast. Eventual recovery means non-OPEC supply, excluding processing gains and unconventionals, continues to grow until 2032 when it peaks at 66 million b/d. In the previous long-term outlook, non-OPEC production peaked a million b/d higher in 2031.