Macro oils short-term outlook: April 2022
Report summary
Table of contents
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Global Supply: base case outlook for Russia supply substantially lowered
- Russia: oil production falls marginally in March, but exports remain elevated
- Non-OPEC Supply: Downgrades to Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway offset upgrades to China
- US Lower 48: OFS constraints temper growth in H1 2022
- OPEC: production increases continue as planned for OPEC+, despite ongoing market volatility
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Global demand: Global demand recovery pressured amid confluence of Russia/Ukraine conflict and China lockdowns
- 2022: Demand to exceed 100 million b/d by Q3 2022, but Q2 2022 demand will barely breach 99 million b/d
- 2023: Global demand poised to reach record highs, but at a slower pace
- Risks to the outlook
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