Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: April 2024
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Report summary
Prices moved up in March, by $1.50/bbl from February, to average $85.40/bbl, close to our forecast of $85.00/bbl. The upward trend continued in early April with Brent reaching $90-93/bbl in the first week. • Emerging markets in Asia Pacific propel this year’s demand growth • Russia announces voluntary adjustments for Q2 will be based on crude oil production only • Early April price rise is in line with our forecast for strength in Q2 and Q3 2024 • Canada oil sands output falls from late 2023 record levels
Table of contents
- Global Supply: non-OPEC growth slows and OPEC+ cuts take effect in first half of 2024
- Non-OPEC: downgrades to Q1 2024 dominate changes this month
- US Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 250,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ continues with production cuts
- Global demand: Emerging markets in Asia Pacific propel growth this year
- Liquids demand by key markets
- Global outlook for 2025
- Risks to the outlook
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