Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: February 2022
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The oil market has zoomed upward since the new year started with brief supply outages in Kazakhstan and Libya. The Russia-Ukraine crisis added more power upward to crude prices, as did the growing talk in the market of a “supply shortage”. However, we do not see such a shortage. This Macro Oils short-term outlook highlights include: • Some oil stock levels are low, but see 2022 implied stock build • Assessment of OPEC spare capacity • Upward revisions for global demand as Covid lockdowns ease • US Lower 48 production adjusted higher for 2022-23
Table of contents
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Global supply: OPEC+ and mature producer struggles offset by increasing US onshore activity
- Russia production edges higher in January as Ukraine tensions rise
- Non-OPEC Supply: Downward adjustments to the North Sea offset North America gains
- US Lower 48: production returns to pre-pandemic levels by 2023
- OPEC: steady as it goes, agreement to roll over the current pace of OPEC+ production increases
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Global demand: Recovery to proceed swiftly in 2022, but faces downside risks
- 2022 global liquids demand by region
- Asia-Pacific
- Europe
- Americas
- Russia and The Caspian
- Africa
- 2023 global liquids demand
- Risks to the outlook
Tables and charts
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What's included
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