Macro Oils short-term outlook: January 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 07 January 2021

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Report summary

The OPEC+ agreement and Saudi announcement immediately after the meeting on 5 January support oil prices. The 1 million b/d additional reduction from Saudi Arabia offsets the weakening demand recovery in the US and Europe as coronavirus cases rise. Shortly after the announcement of the cut, Brent rose several dollars a barrel to $53-54 per barrel. Highlights of the early January Macro Oils Monthly Update include: • Assessing state of demand as pandemic and strict lockdowns trigger weakness • Signs of recovery in the US Lower 48 rig count • Tightening supply and demand balance after Q1 2021 supporting prices

Global supply: OPEC+ Saudi Arabia to cut deeper; US Lower 48 revised up in 2022
- OPEC+ agrees small rise in output for some as Saudi Arabia pledges 1 million b/d cut
- Non-OPEC: outlook little changed, minor revisions downwards for 2020 and 2021, and upwards for 2022
- US Lower 48: drilling activity recovering earlier than expected in key regions
- OPEC: downward revision due to Saudi Arabia cuts
Global demand: Persistent Covid-19 outbreaks stall the demand recovery
- Quarterly global liquids demand: Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 demand recovery stalls
- Q4 2020 and Q1 2021:
- Q2 2021 to Q4 2021:
- 2022: Demand approaches pre-crisis levels by year-end