Macro oils short-term outlook: January 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 10 January 2023

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Report summary

Oil prices bumped down over the holidays and into the new year. We still project a moderate recovery in the market, as demand is expected to shift into strong growth this quarter and more so in the second quarter. Highlights of this monthly update include: • Price outlook through 2024 with revisions in near term • Improved drilling and completion efficiency support upgrade to US L48 supply outlook • Russia production revised up as high distillate exports support crude runs through end of 2022 • China easing Covid measures helps drive growth in 2023 The early January Monthly Update features an Executive Summary report and the related data download. The slide pack will resume with the next monthly report.

Global supply: OPEC+ marks time as the impact of planned restrictions on Russian oil supply remains unclear
- Non-OPEC supply: US Lower 48 growth accelerates; Russia production remains strong, for now
- Russia responds to G7 price cap plan by banning sales to participating countries
- US Lower 48 growth continues through October
- OPEC supply: production drops as OPEC+ stick to output cuts amid continuing market uncertainty
Global demand: China easing Covid measures helps drive growth in 2023
- 2022: The recent Covid surge in China weakened the global demand recovery
- 2023: China easing Covid measures helps drive growth in 2023
- 2024 Global demand recovers on an economic soft landing
- Risks to the outlook