Macro oils short-term outlook: January 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 11 January 2024

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Report summary

As the new year gets underway, Brent is trading in the mid to high $70s. Prices are under pressure as the fundamentals weakened in Q4 2023 and are expected to do so this quarter as well. That shifts after Q1 2024 when we project a tightening in the supply and demand balance for the remainder of this year. Highlights of our monthly update include: • China continues to lead global demand as growth shifts towards petrochemicals • Angola leaves, but rest of OPEC+ group confirm commitment to managing market stability • Protestors shut-in production at Libya’s largest oil field, El Sharara • Geopolitical risk map The early January Monthly Update features an Executive Summary report, related data download and key price slides. The full slide pack will resume with the next monthly report.

Global supply: continued strength of non-OPEC supply adds pressure on OPEC to extend voluntary cuts
Non-OPEC: upward revisions dominate changes, with first exports from Niger expected in the near-term
US Lower 48 production growth to slow to 170,000 b/d in 2024
OPEC: Angola leaves OPEC; rest of group confirms commitment to managing market stability
Global demand: China continues to lead global demand as growth shifts towards petrochemicals
- Liquids demand by key markets
Global outlook for 2025
Risks to the outlook