Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: July 2024
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Report summary
After weakening in early June, with Brent at $75 to $78/bbl during the first week, Brent rose steadily to close out the month at $86-$87/bbl. What is behind the increase? Our latest Monthly Update looks at the supply and demand fundamentals and sees reasons for price support. Highlights this month focus on: • Petrochemical outlook strengthens amidst a tepid global manufacturing recovery • Record US NGLs production drives near term upgrade • Pace of Brazil production growth has eased, leading to a revised baseline for 2024 and 2025 • Short-term forecast extended through 2026
Table of contents
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Global Supply: market poised for the impact of the rollover of OPEC+ cuts through Q3 2024
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Brazil offset by upgrades to US NGLs in 2024
- US Lower 48 annual oil production forecast to surpass 11 million b/d in 2025
- OPEC: key producers likely to continue production constraint through 2026
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Global demand: Petrochemical outlook strengthens amidst a tepid global manufacturing recovery
- Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- United States
- Europe
- Global outlook for 2025 and 2026
- Risks to the outlook
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