Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: March 2024
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Report summary
The price of Brent is breaking out of the broad $75 to $81/bbl range in place since the start of the year. Driving prices upward is the tightening in supply and demand fundamentals which we expect to accelerate during the second quarter, affecting prices already this month. Adding further upside is the announcement on 3 March that OPEC+ will extend the Q1 2024 voluntary production cuts through Q2. Highlights this month include: • Impact of the OPEC+ Q2 2024 extension on supply and price • Strengthening outlook for industrial production supports recovery in diesel demand • Update on Canada’s TMX pipeline • Strong output in Argentina, Brazil and Guyana drives upgrades to oil supply
Table of contents
- Global Supply: OPEC+ extends and deepens production cuts through Q2 2024
- Non-OPEC: strong growth in Latin America offset by downgrades to Norway in 2024
- US Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 270,000 b/d in 2024
- Frac spread market continues to stay tight with focus on efficiency
- OPEC: OPEC+ extends additional voluntary cuts through Q2 2024
- Global demand: Strengthening outlook for industrial production supports recovery in diesel sales
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Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- United States
- Europe
- Global outlook for 2025
- Risks to the outlook
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