Macro oils short-term outlook: March 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 07 March 2024

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Report summary

The price of Brent is breaking out of the broad $75 to $81/bbl range in place since the start of the year. Driving prices upward is the tightening in supply and demand fundamentals which we expect to accelerate during the second quarter, affecting prices already this month. Adding further upside is the announcement on 3 March that OPEC+ will extend the Q1 2024 voluntary production cuts through Q2. Highlights this month include: • Impact of the OPEC+ Q2 2024 extension on supply and price • Strengthening outlook for industrial production supports recovery in diesel demand • Update on Canada’s TMX pipeline • Strong output in Argentina, Brazil and Guyana drives upgrades to oil supply

Global Supply: OPEC+ extends and deepens production cuts through Q2 2024
Non-OPEC: strong growth in Latin America offset by downgrades to Norway in 2024
US Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 270,000 b/d in 2024
Frac spread market continues to stay tight with focus on efficiency
OPEC: OPEC+ extends additional voluntary cuts through Q2 2024
Global demand: Strengthening outlook for industrial production supports recovery in diesel sales
Liquids demand by key markets
- China
- United States
- Europe
Global outlook for 2025
Risks to the outlook