Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook: May 2021
Report summary
The oil market – and OPEC+ – are assessing the risk to demand growth from Covid-19 outbreaks in Europe and parts of Asia, including India. On the other hand, the two largest oil consuming nations, the US and China, are both showing positive signs of recovery with a near return to normal within sight. They are both forecast to see demand increases in 2021 of over 1 million b/d year-on-year. Read our new Macro Oils Monthly Update for more on: • The short-term price outlook including the Brent-WTI differential • What's behind our continued forecast for a 6 million b/d annual gain in 2021 demand • Impact of OPEC+ decisions on the supply forecast • The toll of the February freeze on US Lower 48 production
Table of contents
-
Global supply: status quo remains for growth in 2021 and 2022
- OPEC+ holds decision to increase supply gradually
- Non-OPEC supply: upward revisions mainly led by China
- US Lower 48: supply holds steady as US producers harvest cash
- A disproportionate rig recovery
- Operators clean up balance sheets
- OPEC: minor upward revisions as Iran baseline creeps up
-
Global demand: China and US on the road to recovery, while restrictions hit Europe/Southeast Asia demand
- Global liquids demand this year: China, US recovery path offset H1 2021 weakness
- Q1 2021:
- Q2 to Q4 2021:
- 2022: Demand expected breach 100 million b/d in Q3 2022
- Risks to the outlook
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2023
Our assessment of global supply and demand continues to show a large deficit in Q3 2023 and an implied stock draw also in Q4 2023.
$2,000
Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: October 2023
Prices wobble in early October but oil market fundamentals remain firm with demand growth holding up at 2.0 million b/d for 2023
$2,000
Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: August 2023
Brent recovered during July, as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced an extension of their voluntary production cuts into September
$2,000